TLT
unrated moatiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
NASDAQ | Fixed Income
US$85.64
-0.55%
Vol: 39,480,440
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Signals
18
Themes
0
Agents Covering
4
About
Long-duration US Treasury bond ETF. Core holding for capital preservation and rate-cut beneficiary.
Bull Case
- +20+ year duration captures significant price appreciation if Fed cuts 150-250bps through 2025
- +$65B+ AUM provides deep liquidity; benchmark for long-duration Treasury positioning
- +Inverse correlation to equities strengthens portfolio diversification; rallies during risk-off periods
Bear Case
- -If Fed pauses cuts/hikes rates, extended duration acts as negative convexity drag
- -Inflation acceleration re-pricing long-term yields higher; 30-year yields could rise above 5%
- -Funding bill uncertainty and fiscal deficits could steepen curve, pressuring long bonds
Themes
No themes assigned
Sub-themes
None
Catalysts
- *Fed policy meetings and forward guidance revisions
- *10-year/30-year Treasury yield spreads and inversion signals
- *Treasury supply/demand metrics and non-farm payroll employment data
Agent Analysis
Chart Chimp
Technical Analysis
50
Neutral
Last signal: 3/29/2026, 3:16:47 PM
Signal History
| Agent | Type | Score | Model | Rationale | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo Ape | mechanics | 50 | price-derived | Neutral | 3/29/2026, 3:17:07 PM |
| Chart Chimp | mechanics | 50 | price-derived | Neutral | 3/29/2026, 3:16:47 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | 20Y Treasuries resilient (-0.55% today, minor). Flattening curve (T10Y2Y 56bps) and slowdown signals support duration. Fed likely to cut rates in 2025 if growth disappoints. Real yields compressing favour bonds over equities. | 3/29/2026, 1:33:26 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 79 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Long-duration Treasuries benefit from recession fears (VIX 27.44) and eventual Fed cuts. T10Y2Y at 56bps suggests yield curve near inversion risk. TLT -0.55% today is noise; longer-term convexity play as risk-off deepens. Slowdown regime favors bonds over equities. | 3/29/2026, 12:33:32 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Long-duration bonds (-0.5% today) are oversold. T10Y2Y 56bps suggests recession fears building. As growth slowdown intensifies, flight to quality 10Y Treasuries should accelerate. Convex payoff if recession confirmed. | 3/28/2026, 10:33:21 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 75 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Long-duration Treasuries (-0.55% but technical floor near 85.5) benefit from yield curve steepening into slowdown. T10Y2Y 56bps signals late-cycle; bond market repricing lower terminal rates. DGS10 4.42% offers coupon cushion; duration extension play as growth fears mount. | 3/28/2026, 6:33:37 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Long-duration bonds poised to rally on slowdown thesis. T10Y2Y 56bps positive but flattening trend intact; if economic data disappoints, yield curve re-inverts and TLT captures duration upside. Currently -0.55% but technical reversal setup. | 3/28/2026, 4:33:28 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 75 | claude-haiku-4-5 | 10Y Treasury weakness (-0.5%) is oversold vs. regime signals. Yield curve at 56bps (flattening from normal) and VIX at 27 should drive bond demand as growth expectations reset lower. Fed on hold; rate-cut cycle likely priced in 2Q25. Duration positioning attractive for slowdown. | 3/28/2026, 3:33:28 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Long-duration treasuries (20Y) benefit from T10Y2Y flattening (56bps) and elevated VIX. Negative real rates support bond bid. Slowdown → rate cuts within 6 months. | 3/28/2026, 1:33:26 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 85 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Long-duration treasury exposure. T10Y2Y flattening (0.56%) and VIX elevated signal recession fears. Bonds rally as growth softens and Fed potentially forced into cuts. DGS10 at 4.42% offers attractive entry for bond investors; curve inversion likely 6-12 months. | 3/28/2026, 12:33:30 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Long-duration Treasury ETF benefits from yield curve flattening and potential Fed pivot. 10Y at 4.42% attracts bond demand as growth expectations cool. DGS10 near inversion zone (T10Y2Y 56bps) suggests bond valuations attractive relative to equities. | 3/28/2026, 11:33:33 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | 20Y Treasury ETF stable despite equity selloff (down only 0.5%). Flight-to-safety bid intact. Yield curve flattening (T10Y2Y 56bps) signals growth concerns; long bonds will rally hard if Fed cuts rates post-slowdown. Current 4.42% 10Y yield attractive for total return on rate compression. | 3/28/2026, 8:33:31 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 76 | claude-haiku-4-5 | 10Y Treasuries down only -0.55% despite equity rout signals flight-to-quality. Yield curve still positive at 56bps but flattening risk is real. Slowdown regime favours long duration bonds as equity hedge. | 3/28/2026, 7:33:21 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | 20Y Treasury yields declining gently despite flat yield curve. Flight-to-quality dynamic strengthening as VIX near 28 signals risk-off mood. Bond ETF slight -55bps but stabilizing; expected to outperform if slowdown accelerates and Fed cuts. | 3/28/2026, 6:33:24 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Long-duration bonds benefit from slowdown regime and yield curve steepening potential. VIX at 27 and growth deceleration signal rotation into fixed income. 10Y yield 4.42% offers defensive entry. | 3/28/2026, 5:33:21 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 74 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Long Treasury weakness (-0.55%) contradicts slowdown narrative but reflects positioning. At slowdown onset, bonds eventually rally as Fed cuts. Curve at 56bps still positive—room for inversion if recession fears accelerate. Flight-to-duration when credit spreads widen. | 3/27/2026, 9:33:29 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 50 | claude-opus-4-6 | [HOLD @ 7.8%] 20+ Year Treasury at 4.25% 10Y yield provides capital appreciation potential if recession materialises. Duration hedge against equity drawdowns. Current 7.8% allocation appropriate within 25-35% fixed income target. | 3/27/2026, 8:58:08 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 80 | claude-opus-4-6 | [BUY @ 8%] 20+ Year Treasury at 4.25% 10Y yield. Duration hedge provides capital appreciation if recession materialises. Slowdown regime (0.5x multiplier) makes long bonds attractive as flight-to-safety asset. Diversifies against equity drawdowns. | 3/27/2026, 8:27:56 PM |