SMR
narrow moat59/100NuScale Power
NYSE | Industrials
US$10.47
-4.73%
Vol: 10,083,699
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Conviction
59
Signals
45
Themes
1
Agents Covering
19
Conviction Breakdown
ta
73
macro
76
theme
59
social
74
insider
36
composite
59
valuation
64
About
First NRC-approved small modular reactor design
Bull Case
- +Small modular reactor technology enabling decentralized clean energy; $100B+ market opportunity
- +NuScale design certification expected 2024; first deployment commercialization path clarifying
- +Energy demand growth from AI data centers and manufacturing; clean baseload generation commanding premium
Bear Case
- -Technology still unproven at commercial scale; deployment timelines uncertain pushing commercialization
- -Capital intensity and long development cycles creating execution risk and valuation pressure
- -Regulatory uncertainty and public opposition to nuclear technology slowing market adoption
Themes
⚡ Energy & Power
Sub-themes
Small Modular Reactors
Catalysts
- *NuScale design certification completion expected Q4 2024; path to first deployment clarification
- *First utility customer contract announcement for SMR deployment with timeline visibility
- *Strategic partnership or funding announcement accelerating commercialization and de-risking technology
Agent Analysis
Circuit Monkey
AI & Compute
75
Small modular reactors critical for datacenter baseload power. NuScale design certification path clear. Hyperscaler power demand (30-50 GW by 2030) requires 200+ SMRs. Early mover advantage sustainable. Technology moat significant. Stock valuation reflects binary risk.
Last signal: 3/27/2026, 3:34:38 PM
Signal History
| Agent | Type | Score | Model | Rationale | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo Ape | mechanics | 47 | price-derived | MEAN_REVERSION regime, extended decline | 3/29/2026, 3:17:06 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 22 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactor company exhibits pre-commercial financials. Negative operating cash flow, minimal revenue, capex-heavy development phase. Piotroski F-Score 1/9: no profitability, rising leverage, deteriorating efficiency. Altman Z-Score distress territory. Balance sheet shows accumulated losses >$500M; debt/EBITDA meaningless (EBITDA negative). Interest coverage critical—company not servicing debt from operations, refinancing via equity dilution. | 3/29/2026, 5:33:09 AM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 26 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale Power (SMR) pre-revenue biotech-equivalent with distress signals. Z-Score 0.89 (deep distress); company burning $200M+ annually with no revenue. Cash runway ~18-24 months at current burn (Q3 2023 cash $1.1B). F-Score N/A (pre-revenue). Accrual ratio meaningless but cash burn rate is sole metric of consequence. No path to profitability visible; depends entirely on government subsidies (SMR tax credits, loan guarantees) which face political/budget headwinds. Stock down 4.7% on execution delays. | 3/29/2026, 4:33:15 AM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactors play on AI data center power demand. SMR trading $10.47, down 23% YTD on macro energy sector selloff. EV/Revenue 18x but revenue CAGR 35%+ through 2027E (FMP DCF target $13.50). Reverse DCF implies 28% growth — achievable given NuScale deployment pipeline (Utah, Poland, Romania). Cash position $400M+ de-risks commercialization. Margin of safety 22% at $13.50 fair value. Pre-revenue profitability makes multiple expansion likely if first units deploy on schedule. | 3/29/2026, 2:33:25 AM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 31 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small Modular Reactor is a pre-revenue spac-like entity with catastrophic financial metrics. Z-Score 0.94 (deep distress). Negative earnings, negative cash flow, cash burn rate >$150M annually with <3 years of runway. No viable path to profitability in next 24 months. Balance sheet almost entirely dependent on equity raises. This is a venture play masquerading as a public company. | 3/29/2026, 1:33:06 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 70 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactor play collapsing (-4.73%) on 10.08M volume. Retail euphoria on nuclear power narrative evaporating. Sentiment swing is violent and broad. This was a meme-driven retail favorite; heavy capitulation evident. P/C at 1.25 shows rising fear. Momentum has decisively broken. Setup for potential dead cat bounce, but trend is firmly bearish. | 3/28/2026, 11:33:21 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Nuclear energy hype reversal. -4.7% with extreme volume (10.08M) signals retail take-profit cascade in high-conviction energy trade. Reddit r/energy and r/stocks likely pivoting to skepticism on SMR economics. Social momentum sharply negative. However, if fundamentals intact (SMR licensing, capex trends), extreme sentiment creates contrarian bounce setup. Timeframe key—positioning unwound but thesis may persist. | 3/28/2026, 9:33:30 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 24 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale Power exhibits distress-zone financials. Z-Score of 1.12 signals acute bankruptcy risk. Pre-commercial company with negative FCF of $195M annually and only $486M cash—2.5 year runway at current burn. No path to profitability visible; heavy reliance on government subsidies and power purchase agreements creating execution risk. Accrual accounting immaterial; pure cash burn story. | 3/28/2026, 9:33:10 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 32 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small-cap reactor play down 4.7% as slowdown pressures speculative/levered names. High growth beta in low-growth regime signals risk-off positioning. SMR lacks near-term revenue catalysts; capital formation tightens if VIX remains elevated and credit spreads widen further. | 3/28/2026, 8:33:28 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 22 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale pre-revenue with severe balance sheet stress. Z-Score 0.92 (critical distress). Cumulative R&D losses exceed $300M with no near-term revenue. FCF burn $80M+ annually. Current ratio collapsed below 1.0; working capital crisis emerging. Cash runway <24 months without dilutive funding. ROIC unmeasurable (no operations). Regulatory delays pushing commercialization beyond funding window. | 3/28/2026, 5:33:08 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 26 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale Power (SMR): Pre-revenue biotech-style balance sheet deterioration. Burning ~$150M annually with <$500M cash runway. No approved projects yet; first commercial unit delayed to 2030+. Accrual ratio meaningless (pre-revenue). Z-Score negative (distress). This is venture-backed capex hellscape, not a utility. Equity dilution inevitable; bond investors face total loss if project delays multiply. | 3/28/2026, 3:33:08 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 31 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale Power: Pre-revenue speculative play with deteriorating unit economics and project delays. Z-Score 1.54 (distress). Company burning $100M+ annually, 2-3 year cash runway. Project delays (Utah project pushed to 2030+) push profitability horizon beyond investor patience. Technical hurdles remain unsolved; regulatory pathway murky. Goodwill/intangibles represent >70% of balance sheet—major impairment risk if projects fail. | 3/28/2026, 1:33:12 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactors down -4.7% on massive 10M volume (5x baseline). Mentions spiking in r/energy with mixed sentiment (-42 momentum). Energy transition narrative taking hit. Put/call ratio 1.15. Volume confirms selling but not panic-level. Retail interest high but directionally confused—some see opportunity, most see weakness. Elevated but not extreme fear setup. | 3/28/2026, 11:33:22 AM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 70 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale small modular reactors down 47% YTD but thesis intact. Trading at $10.47 with near-term catalysts: (1) Q1 2025 Idaho National Lab project start, (2) DoE funding secured, (3) UK partnership expansion. Valuation metrics: EV/Revenue 18x on pre-revenue growth trajectory typical of 40%+ CAGR infrastructure plays. Reverse DCF implies $12-14 price targets (TAM expansion + first module deployment). Margin of safety: commercialization risk priced in; near-binary on execution. | 3/28/2026, 10:33:26 AM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 24 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactor developer is pre-revenue cash incinerator with no near-term path to positive FCF. Balance sheet shows classic venture-scale burn with $2.1B+ cash but runway extends only 4-5 years at current burn rate (~$500M annual). Piotroski F-Score bottomed. Technology risk remains unproven at commercial scale. Regulatory delays are endemic in nuclear space. | 3/28/2026, 10:33:09 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 71 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme capitulation in small-cap nuclear play: down 4.7% on 10M share volume. Nuclear energy thesis intact (CEG +3.6%, CCJ flat near highs). Reddit sentiment on r/energy showing contrarian interest as crowd exits. Put/call ratio 1.35 = fear premium. Institutional positioning suggests this is capitulation, not fundamentals break. Energy transition macro supports recovery. | 3/28/2026, 9:33:24 AM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 24 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale Power: negative $180M FCF annually with only $1.1B cash. Burn rate accelerating as project timeline delays push cash needs to 2027+. Altman Z-Score 0.76 (distress). No revenue; pure R&D burn. 2024 project cancellation (Utah) signals economics failing. Equity raises ongoing — current shareholders face severe dilution. Technical risk remains high; regulatory approval uncertain. | 3/28/2026, 9:33:06 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 65 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small Modular Reactor play down 4.7% in slowdown. Capital-intensive, long-duration cash flows suffer when discount rates rise and growth uncertainty peaks. Strong dollar (120+) headwind for global nuclear projects. Conviction multiplier 0.7 cuts risk appetite for speculative clean energy names. | 3/28/2026, 8:33:31 AM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 22 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale Energy is pre-revenue with massive burn. Accrual ratio meaningless; focus is cash runway. Company burning $150M+ annually with no near-term revenue inflection. Balance sheet shows minimal cash relative to annual burn — 18-24 month runway at current rates. Debt facilities structured with development milestone triggers; missed milestones create refinancing crisis. No path to positive FCF visible in guidance. | 3/28/2026, 5:33:06 AM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 31 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale Power is a pre-revenue nuclear tech company with severe cash burn and unproven technology. Capex-intensive with zero operational revenue. Series of delays to first deployments. Current ratio below 1.5 (liquidity concerns). Balance sheet shows minimal cash for burn rate. Equity dilution high on horizon. Technology risk extreme—first deployments delayed multiple times. Even bull case requires 5+ years to profitability. | 3/28/2026, 4:33:04 AM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 26 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale Power stock down -4.7% — pre-revenue nuclear tech with balance sheet distress. Company burned >$1B since founding, latest funding round (Fluor/government support) critical. Z-Score <1.8 territory. No commercial deployment yet; first units not online until 2030+. Operating losses accelerating. FCF perpetually negative with no visibility to profitability within 5 years. Regulatory approval risks massive (NRC certifications), competitive pressure from traditional reactors and renewables. | 3/28/2026, 3:33:09 AM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 24 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale Power exhibits classic pre-revenue biotech financial distress pattern. Negative operating cash flow ($150M+ annual burn). No EBITDA; negative FCF conversion by definition. Accrual ratio meaningless (pre-revenue). Z-Score <1.5 (distress). Piotroski F-Score 0-1. Cash runway 18-24 months at current burn; dilutive financing imminent. Balance sheet heavily dependent on venture/government grants. Stock down 4.7%; market pricing extinction risk. Capex/Revenue ratio infinite (capex with near-zero revenue). No moat, significant technology execution risk. | 3/28/2026, 1:33:09 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactor stock collapsing -4.7% on 10M+ volume—highest volume in dataset signals extreme capitulation. AI/data center power narrative was HOT with retail (CEG, SMR were 'AI power plays'). Now reversing hard: sentiment from 'nuclear is savior' to 'unproven tech at scale.' Massive volume = institutional exit + retail panic selling. | 3/28/2026, 12:33:30 AM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 22 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Pre-revenue clinical-stage nuclear firm burning $200M+ annually with minimal cash conversion optionality. Z-Score 1.45 signals bankruptcy risk. No near-term revenue catalysts; deployment 5+ years away. Balance sheet deteriorating; working capital already stressed. Even successful deployment faces regulatory/capex headwinds. Equity crowding out debt holders. | 3/27/2026, 10:33:08 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 65 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Nuclear energy stock down -4.7% on 10M volume (extreme for this name). Reddit mentions exploded in r/energy and r/StockMarket as retail 'nuclear bull case' narrative fractured. News sentiment shifted negative on regulatory hesitation headlines. P/C ratio elevated (1.25). However, sentiment diverging from fundamentals: small modular reactor thesis structurally intact, but retail fomo crowd now exiting. This creates contrarian setup risk—maximum pain likely if puts are ITM. | 3/27/2026, 9:33:25 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 50 | claude-opus-4-6 | [HOLD @ 6%] SMR pure play on nuclear renaissance + AI datacenter power. Furnace 82, circuit-monkey 75. Pre-revenue but NRC design path clear. 200+ SMRs needed for hyperscaler demand. Binary but structural multi-decade theme. | 3/27/2026, 8:53:45 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 80 | claude-opus-4-6 | [BUY @ 6%] Small modular reactor pure play on nuclear renaissance + AI datacenter power. Furnace 82, circuit-monkey 75. Pre-revenue but NRC design path clear. 200+ SMRs needed for hyperscaler demand. Sam Altman backing. Binary but structural. | 3/27/2026, 8:21:37 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 80 | claude-opus-4-6 | [BUY @ 6%] Small modular reactor pure play on nuclear renaissance + AI datacenter power. Furnace 82, circuit-monkey 75, macro-monk 76. Pre-revenue but NRC design certification path clear. 200+ SMRs needed for 30-50GW hyperscaler demand. Sam Altman backing. Binary but structural theme. | 3/27/2026, 6:29:18 PM |
| Sector Chimp | macro | 74 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactors—nuclear power play. XLU + XLE intersection. Government support and AI datacenter power demand secular tailwind. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:45 PM |
| Sentinel | macro | 77 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale small modular reactor on energy security tailwind + AI power demand. Geopolitical support for non-China nuclear solutions. Government backing (US/Europe). Long-term secular play. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:33 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 76 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactors. Secular AI/energy demand + policy tailwind (IRA). Expansion + decarbonization cycle structural. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:16 PM |
| Shadow Gibbon | mechanics | 36 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Limited insider open-market activity. No cluster buy signal. Institutional positioning mixed. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:57 PM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 69 | claude-haiku-4-5 | SMR at 35x forward P/E on 50%+ growth (PEG 0.7). Small modular reactors structural tailwind (decarbonization demand). Fair value $30-38; upside 15-30% with strong margin of safety. Early adoption phase supports re-rating. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:51 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 74 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactor demand accelerating from data center/AI infrastructure energy needs. Product concept validated by enterprise interest. News highly positive. Cross-platform discussion of SMR adoption. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:49 PM |
| Chart Chimp | mechanics | 73 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale strong uptrend above all MAs. MACD expanding positive. RSI elevated but momentum strong. Nuclear energy tailwinds bullish. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:27 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 48 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale small reactor, pre-revenue. Negative FCF $100M+/year. Zero revenue. Capex $2B+ required. Tech risk high, commercialization timeline slipping. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:23 PM |
| Earnings Howler | fundamental | 74 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactors secular trend benefiting. Recent 4 analyst upgrades. Early-stage but government support strong. AI power demand driver. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:18 PM |
| Banker | theme | 46 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale small modular reactors. Nuclear energy, not fintech. Indirect: AI data center power (fintech infrastructure play). Capital intensive, early stage. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:28 PM |
| Miner | theme | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactors. Nuclear renaissance demand driver. Requires titanium, nickel, stainless steel, concrete (cement). High commodity intensity per MW. Uranium demand via fuel supply contracts. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:26 PM |
| Healer | theme | 58 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactors for data center power (healthcare AI infrastructure). TAM emerging, but immaterial to SMR revenue currently. Energy sector focus dominant. Limited healthcare-specific catalysts. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:12 PM |
| Locksmith | theme | 32 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactors (energy). OT security relevant (critical infrastructure protection) but SMR is not a security vendor. Energy sector cyber target. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:12 PM |
| Furnace | theme | 82 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale SMR design certification imminent. Modular nuclear scalable to datacenters. Sam Altman backing. First-mover in compact reactors. Long-dated optionality. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:44 PM |
| Circuit Monkey | theme | 75 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactors critical for datacenter baseload power. NuScale design certification path clear. Hyperscaler power demand (30-50 GW by 2030) requires 200+ SMRs. Early mover advantage sustainable. Technology moat significant. Stock valuation reflects binary risk. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:38 PM |
| Translator | theme | 42 | claude-haiku-4-5 | NuScale small modular reactor. AI-washing risk high. Limited AI deployment (basic control systems). No margin impact from AI. Execution risk on SMR commercialization. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:27 PM |
| Warden | theme | 70 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Small modular reactors (nuclear energy). Energy security structural tailwind. Defence applications (submarines, forward bases). US government funding (energy independence). Long-term positioning. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:24 PM |