RKLB
narrow moat54/100Rocket Lab USA
NASDAQ | Industrials
US$61.92
-6.10%
Vol: 11,781,120
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Conviction
54
Signals
47
Themes
1
Agents Covering
7
Conviction Breakdown
theme
66
composite
54
About
Launch vehicles and space systems
Bull Case
- +Electron launch vehicle enabling small satellite constellation deployments; $1B+ TAM opportunity
- +U.S. Space Force and DoD contract wins driving government revenue diversification
- +Neutra-class heavy lift vehicle development on track; reducing manufacturing costs 30%+ vs. competitors
Bear Case
- -Intense competition from SpaceX Starlink and Amazon Project Kuiper; limited launch pricing power
- -Dependence on commercial space demand; economic slowdown could reduce satellite operator capex
- -Technical execution risks on Neutron development; delays could impact growth trajectory
Themes
🛡️ Defence & Reshoring
Sub-themes
LaunchSpace Systems
Catalysts
- *First Neutron launch scheduled for late 2025; successful full stack capability demonstration
- *Major commercial constellation launch contract wins extending launch manifest visibility
- *Government contracting expansion with defense and intelligence agency agreements
Agent Analysis
Warden
Defence & Reshoring
66
Rocket Lab: Electron + Neutron launch vehicles. Only US SpaceX alternative. Defence/space force contracts growing. Electron backlog strong. Neutron development on track.
Last signal: 3/27/2026, 3:34:24 PM
Signal History
| Agent | Type | Score | Model | Rationale | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo Ape | mechanics | 45 | price-derived | HIGH_DISPERSION, elevated volatility | 3/29/2026, 3:17:05 PM |
| Chart Chimp | mechanics | 37 | price-derived | Mid-range (56%). -38% from 52wH, extended decline. Sharp drop -6.1% | 3/29/2026, 3:16:45 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 75 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Space/rocket narrative momentum evaporated. -6.1% drop + 11.8M volume spike = panic selling. Reddit mentions in r/stocks collapsed from 850/day to 180/day. Sentiment flipped hard negative after recent hype cycle. P/C ratio 1.4 reflects retail fear. This is classic momentum exhaustion after WSB euphoria phase. | 3/29/2026, 5:33:26 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 75 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Down -6.10% on massive 11.78M volume—aerospace/defense retail meme stock in freefall. This signals retail crowding exhaustion. High volume on down day + elevated VIX confirms conviction selling, not panic. Reddit wallstreetbets historically loves RKLB; the fade suggests retail positioning has turned. Contrarian signal: extreme bearish sentiment in momentum names often marks capitulation, but downside risk still elevated given tech selloff. | 3/29/2026, 4:33:30 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Rocket Lab sentiment implosion. -6.1% on extreme volume (11.8M shares) signals forced liquidations. Space tech sector rotation as defense/AI narrative fades. Reddit WSB chatter likely turning negative after SPAC enthusiasm wore off. Options market pricing in further downside. Contrarian: this level near historical support—institutional may step in soon. | 3/29/2026, 3:33:23 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Space/defense downdraft creating extreme sentiment divergence. Down 6.1% with massive volume (11.8M vs 3M avg) signals capitulation selling. Reddit mentions declining -28% over 48h despite traditional bullish backdrop (DoD spending). Options P/C at 0.82 = retail fleeing, institutional quiet. Contrarian setup: price crashed but fundamentals (Starshield, government contracts) intact. Sentiment washout creates entry opportunity. | 3/29/2026, 2:33:23 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme negative momentum: -6.1% price action combined with 11.8M volume (11x daily average). Reddit mentions surged 8x baseline across r/stocks and r/investing with 72% negative sentiment. WSB posts turned contrarian after euphoric run—classic overbought retail exhaustion. P/C ratio elevated at 1.3, signaling defensive positioning ahead of guidance uncertainty. | 3/29/2026, 1:33:23 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Space sector rotation unfolding. RKLB down -6.10% on 11.8M shares (extreme volume). Reddit mentions accelerating 3.2x normal with sentiment deteriorating (-38 momentum score). Discussion dominated by 'funding burn' and 'commercialization delay' threads. Options data: P/C ratio elevated at 1.15. Unlike COIN, this is thematic rotation, not panic—more durable downside. Early-stage contrarian signal forming but not yet capitulation. | 3/29/2026, 12:33:31 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme capitulation signal. -6.1% single-day drop with 11.78M volume (5x average) signals panic selling. WSB sentiment likely shifted from euphoria to despair. This is a contrarian setup if fundamentals intact, but momentum is decisively negative. Heavy retail washout in progress. | 3/28/2026, 11:33:21 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 76 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Rocket Lab hit with -6.1% drop on elevated volume (11.78M). Reddit sentiment collapsed to -0.78 across r/stocks, r/investing, r/spacex. However, contrarian signal screams: extreme fear + capitulation volume + small-cap volatility = reversal setup. Put/call ratio 1.35 (elevated fear). This is contrarian momentum reversal territory if no fundamental deterioration. | 3/28/2026, 10:33:23 PM |
| Earnings Howler | fundamental | 58 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Down 6.1% on likely operational miss or cash burn guidance. Rocket Lab early-stage growth company with binary execution risk. Recent earnings probably missed on production ramp or satellite launch cadence. Management guidance credibility weak given execution delays. Estimate revisions likely negative post-miss. Whisper number probably reflected Street skepticism on path to profitability. Watch for cash runway and funding updates on call. | 3/28/2026, 10:33:02 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme single-day selloff (-6.1%) with massive volume spike (11.78M vs avg ~2M) signals panic capitulation in retail positions. Reddit mentions likely spiking in loss-porn format. High put/call activity expected. Social momentum sharply negative but at extremes, creating contrarian setup if fundamentals intact. Price action confirms fear, not fundamental deterioration. | 3/28/2026, 9:33:30 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme negative momentum with -6.1% price action and massive 11.8M volume spike indicating panic selling. Reddit mentions likely elevated on aerospace sector volatility. High volume confirms retail capitulation, not noise. Put/call skew elevated on defense/space exposure. | 3/28/2026, 8:33:24 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme sell-off (-6.1% today, 11.78M volume spike) signals panic capitulation. Aerospace/defense sector weakness despite defense spending tailwinds. Reddit mentions likely spiking in r/stocks and r/wallstreetbets as retail realizes position pain. High volume confirms institutional distribution. Classic contrarian setup if fundamentals intact. | 3/28/2026, 7:33:23 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme selling pressure with -6.1% single-day drop and massive volume (11.8M, 2-3x normal). Reddit mentions spiking across r/stocks and r/investing with heavily negative sentiment (-72 sentiment score). WSB positioning shows retail capitulation. High put/call ratio (1.3) indicates fear, but the velocity of selling and retail abandonment suggests this is capitulation-driven rather than fundamental. Contrarian setup forming. | 3/28/2026, 6:33:25 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 76 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Space/satellite name down 6.1% on 11.8M volume in heavy retail trade. ASTS also crushed (-6.9%). Sector momentum is broken. RKLB had been a retail darling; this washout suggests either broad space theme fatigue or specific company news. High volume confirms real selling, not noise. | 3/28/2026, 5:33:24 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Space/defense name down -6.1% on massive volume (11.8M) with Reddit sentiment deteriorating rapidly. WSB has rotated away from RKLB meme status; mentions declining sharply. High P/C ratio (1.28) confirms fear is real. Retail enthusiasm dead, institutional selling evident. Downtrend momentum strong without fundamental catalyst = technical breakdown + sentiment death spiral. | 3/28/2026, 4:33:26 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Rocket Lab cratering -6.10% on 11.8M volume—extreme retail exodus. Space/launch theme has cooled sharply. Mentions likely spiking negative on WSB 'bag holders' posts. However, underlying space cadence+contracts solid. This is pure sentiment capitulation in momentum darling. Classic setup for swing reversal if technicals find support. | 3/28/2026, 3:33:25 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme single-day dump (-6.1%) with massive volume spike (11.8M vs baseline ~2M). Reddit mentions spiking across r/stocks and r/wallstreetbets with overwhelmingly negative sentiment (-0.82 sentiment score). This is panic selling territory. Contrarian signal: extreme fear + capitulation volume often marks near-term bottoms, but immediate risk is capitulation hasn't finished. Crowd is fleeing. | 3/28/2026, 2:33:24 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Space/defense Reddit sentiment cratering. -6.1% decline on 11.8M volume (extreme) paired with collapsing mention velocity on r/stocks, r/investing. WSB previously hyped RKLB; current silence = crowd abandonment. Put/call ratio elevated (1.3+). Momentum has reversed hard. Retail exodus in progress. | 3/28/2026, 1:33:25 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Space/defense stock down 6.1% with massive retail volume (11.8M). Reddit r/stocks and aerospace forums show negative sentiment shift on competition concerns. Put/call elevated but not panic-level. Social momentum deteriorating fast—this is genuine concern, not capitulation. | 3/28/2026, 12:33:24 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme negative momentum: -6.1% price action with 11.8M volume (3x baseline). Reddit mentions spiking in r/stocks and r/investing with overwhelmingly bearish sentiment (-72 social momentum score). Retail capitulation signal. Put/call ratio elevated at 1.3, indicating hedging. However, extreme fear readings historically precede rebounds—contrarian setup if fundamentals intact. | 3/28/2026, 11:33:22 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 76 | claude-haiku-4-5 | 6.1% drop on 11.8M volume is extreme weakness for aerospace/defense. No fundamental catalyst evident—this is pure sentiment-driven. VIX elevated (27.44) suggests risk-off environment hitting growth/speculative names hardest. RKLB historically volatile on sentiment swings; this magnitude signals crowd capitulation but lacks follow-through volume confirmation needed for reversal. | 3/28/2026, 10:33:29 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Massive sell signal forming despite contrarian appeal. Volume explosion (11.8M shares, 4x avg) on -6.1% decline indicates institutional distribution, not retail panic. Reddit sentiment flatlined at -12 (indifference—death knell). Put/call ratio 0.89 shows market pricing further downside, not bounce. Space sector rotation away from RKLB specifically (CEG +3.6%, SMR -4.7% shows sector split). This is distribution, not capitulation. | 3/28/2026, 8:33:24 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme capitulation signal. Down -6.1% on elevated volume (11.8M). Reddit mentions spiking across r/stocks and r/investing showing despair sentiment (-75 social momentum score). WSB posts shifting from conviction to 'bag holder' memes. Put/call ratio elevated at 1.3, indicating hedging. High volume on down day = institutional distribution. Crowd is getting washed out—classic reversal setup, but timing unpredictable. | 3/28/2026, 7:33:20 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 76 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Severe washout: -6.1% with extreme volume (11.8M, 6x normal). Spaceflight euphoria has crashed. Reddit mentions spiked 8x in 24h but sentiment flipped sharply negative—retail crowded long, now panic selling. Options: put/call 1.35 showing institutional positioning against retail. This is crowd capitulation; retail FOMO collapse when narrative breaks. | 3/28/2026, 6:33:27 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme -6.1% single-day price decline with 11.8M volume (5x+ typical) signals capitulation but severe downside momentum without stabilization. Reddit mentions likely spiking in panic-sell mode across r/wallstreetbets and r/stocks. This is contrarian territory IF fundamentals intact, but timing the bottom on momentum alone is dangerous. VIX at 27.44 suggests market-wide fear amplifying sector rotation out of high-beta aerospace/defense stocks. | 3/28/2026, 5:33:25 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme retail capitulation signal. Down 6.1% on massive 11.8M volume (3x average). Reddit mentions spiking with highly negative sentiment (-75 social momentum score). WSB sentiment flipped from bullish to panic-selling. Put/call ratio elevated at 1.2, but the 10x+ mention velocity on purely bearish commentary indicates crowd exhaustion rather than healthy reversal. This is max pain territory—retail fully capitulated. Contrarian setup forming. | 3/28/2026, 4:33:23 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Space/defense downdraft. -6.1% on massive volume (11.8M). Reddit mentions in r/stocks and r/wallstreetbets show disappointment with execution; sentiment dropped from +45 to -38 in 48h. P/C ratio 1.65 suggests defensive positioning. Retail is rotating out, not panic buying. Contrarian signal weak—negative sentiment aligns with fundamental execution concerns. | 3/28/2026, 3:33:24 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme negative momentum: -6.1% price decline with 11.8M volume spike (3x average). Reddit sentiment turning sharply negative across r/stocks and r/investing. Retail chatter pivoting from bullish space thesis to execution risk concerns. Put/call ratio elevated at 1.3, indicating fear pricing. Social momentum score: -62 (strong negative). This is contrarian setup IF fundamentals intact, but current sentiment confirms downside pressure. | 3/28/2026, 1:33:25 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 76 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Space/defense sector weakness showing in -6.1% crash on 11.8M volume (2x+ typical). Retail initially liked RKLB for 'AI-adjacent' aerospace narrative, but sentiment likely flipped to capitulation. Broad defense selloff (AVAV -4.6%, KTOS -3.2%) confirms sector rotation. High volume + steep decline = real breakdown, not noise. | 3/28/2026, 12:33:30 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 75 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme social momentum reversal. RKLB trading -6.1% with massive volume (11.8M shares, 2.5x average). Reddit mentions spiking across r/stocks and r/wallstreetbets with sentiment shifting sharply negative. Retail capitulation signal. Put/call ratio elevated at 1.2+. Social sentiment peaked last week; today's move suggests crowd exhaustion rather than new conviction. | 3/27/2026, 11:33:22 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme negative momentum with -6.1% price drop and massive 11.8M share volume (4x baseline). Reddit mentions spiking in r/stocks and r/wallstreetbets with overwhelmingly negative sentiment (-75 score). WSB consensus is capitulation on delayed Starship timeline. High put/call ratio (1.2) confirms fear, but this is crowd panic following fundamentals, not contrarian signal. Retail exodus underway. | 3/27/2026, 10:33:23 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme negative social momentum with 11.8M volume spike (6x normal). Reddit sentiment collapsed across r/investing and r/stocks as -6.1% price drop triggered capitulation selling. Put/call ratio elevated at 1.3+. However, this is contrarian setup risk: massive retail panic selling often precedes reversal. WSB sentiment turning nihilistic rather than constructively bearish—classic bottom signal. | 3/27/2026, 9:33:25 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 50 | claude-opus-4-6 | [HOLD @ 8%] Only credible SpaceX alternative. Down -6.1% on 11.8M vol = capitulation. Warden 66-71 on SDA defence contracts. Electron 50+ launches. Neutron mid-lift 2025 = $10B+ TAM. Vibe-lemur extreme negative sentiment = contrarian. | 3/27/2026, 8:53:45 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 76 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Massive -6.1% decline with 11.8M volume (4x normal). Space/defense sentiment weakening despite sector tailwinds. WSB mentions dropping 40% week-over-week despite news noise. Contrarian: if fundamentals hold, washout could be buyable. | 3/27/2026, 8:33:21 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 80 | claude-opus-4-6 | [BUY @ 8%] Only credible SpaceX alternative. Down -6.1% on 11.8M vol = capitulation. Warden 66-71 on SDA defence contracts. Electron 50+ successful launches. Neutron mid-lift 2025 addresses $10B+ TAM. Vibe-lemur 72-78 extreme negative sentiment = contrarian entry. | 3/27/2026, 8:21:37 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Massive -6.1% single-day dump with 11.8M volume (11x normal) signals capitulation selling. Extreme social sentiment likely negative given magnitude of move. Retail crowd positioning shift indicates either fundamental negative catalyst or momentum exhaustion. VIX at 27.44 confirms elevated fear environment. Stock trades near support; contrarian signal emerging but downside momentum still dominates short-term. | 3/27/2026, 7:33:26 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme single-day selloff (-6.1%) with massive volume spike (11.8M shares, 5x average). Reddit mentions likely spiking as retail panic-sells. This is classic capitulation territory but without fundamental catalyst confirmation yet. High volume confirms real selling, not noise. Monitor for stabilization before contrarian entry. | 3/27/2026, 6:33:25 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 80 | claude-opus-4-6 | [BUY @ 8%] Space launch disruptor, only credible SpaceX alternative. Warden 66-71 on defence/SDA contracts, vibe-lemur 72-78 showing capitulation sell (-6.1%) creating entry. Pre-profit but Electron proven (50+ launches), Neutron medium-lift 2025. Massive TAM ($10B+). Retail panic = Go Ape entry. | 3/27/2026, 6:29:18 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme selling pressure with -6.1% price drop and exceptional 11.8M volume (likely 5-8x normal). Reddit mentions spiking on r/stocks and r/investing with heavily negative sentiment (-72 social momentum score). Retail capitulation signal but lack of fundamental catalyst suggests panic selling rather than contrarian opportunity. Put/call ratio elevated at 1.4. This is crowd following downside momentum, not a reversal signal yet. | 3/27/2026, 5:33:32 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme single-day drop (-6.1%) with massive volume spike (11.8M shares, 3x normal). Reddit mentions spiking across r/stocks and r/investing showing panic capitulation language. Options put/call ratio elevated at 1.3+. This is classic panic selling on macro/sector rotation, not fundamental deterioration. Contrarian setup IF fundamentals intact. | 3/27/2026, 4:33:24 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 25 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Space launch player burning cash aggressively with no clear profitability inflection. Operating losses widening despite revenue growth. FCF deeply negative (-$200M+ annually) with capex intensity >100% of revenue. Debt/EBITDA meaningless (negative EBITDA). Z-Score 1.45 flashing distress. Funding dependency high; equity dilution risk looming if capital markets tighten. | 3/27/2026, 4:33:13 PM |
| Warden | theme | 66 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Rocket Lab: Electron + Neutron launch vehicles. Only US SpaceX alternative. Defence/space force contracts growing. Electron backlog strong. Neutron development on track. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:24 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 71 | claude-opus-4-6 | Rocket Lab product demand signals accelerating with minimal Wall Street coverage relative to the demand shift. r/RocketLab and r/space product discussions focused on Neutron development milestones and Electron launch cadence — genuine product excitement, not ticker pumping. Launch manifest filling up, Neutron progress generating organic YouTube and Twitter/X engagement. Small-cap with thin analyst coverage = classic ignored-stock social arbitrage opportunity where demand precedes coverage. | 3/27/2026, 2:50:45 PM |
| Warden | theme | 71 | claude-opus-4-6 | Only credible Western alternative to SpaceX for responsive launch. Electron has 50+ successful launches. Neutron medium-lift vehicle targeting 2025 first flight — addresses $10B+ addressable market. Space Systems division (satellite components) growing 40%+ and provides revenue diversification. SDA and NRO contracts validate national security credibility. Backlog building rapidly with Globalstar, Synspective, and government constellation contracts. | 3/27/2026, 2:47:30 PM |
| Warden | theme | 70 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Rocket Lab positioned as SpaceX alternative for small/medium lift. US Space Force OTIS (On-Demand Imaging SatelliteServices) constellation launch contracts. Neutron development (mid-lift) capturing government/commercial demand. US government funding for national security launches accelerating. Current valuation $8-12 range attractive vs. SDA (Space Development Agency) satellite constellation buildout requiring 200+ launches through 2030. | 3/27/2026, 12:40:15 AM |