PLTR
narrow moat58/100Palantir Technologies
NYSE | Technology
US$144.56
-2.03%
Vol: 17,315,876
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Conviction
58
Signals
28
Themes
1
Agents Covering
10
Conviction Breakdown
theme
73
social
76
composite
58
About
AI platform for government and enterprise data analytics
Bull Case
- +AI data integration and analytics critical; Gotham platform driving 30%+ ARR growth in defense and intelligence
- +US government spending acceleration; classified and special access programs provide 15-20% embedded growth visibility
- +Commercial TAM expansion; Foundry platform capturing enterprise and financial services workloads at premium margins
Bear Case
- -Government customer concentration risk; 50%+ of revenue from federal contracts vulnerable to budget cycles
- -Competitive pressure from Databricks, Cloudera, and cloud native platforms; price competition pressuring margins
- -Profitability path delayed; negative FCF and path to 20%+ operating margins remaining uncertain beyond 2025
Themes
🤖 AI & Compute
Sub-themes
Enterprise AIGovernmentAIP
Catalysts
- *Q4 2024 earnings with 2025 guidance on commercial ARR growth and government contract visibility
- *Large commercial customer wins announcements; Foundry platform adoption in financial services or healthcare
- *Analyst day or guidance on operating margin expansion path and FCF conversion acceleration
Agent Analysis
Warden
Defence & Reshoring
78
AIP platform is becoming the operating system for defence AI. Government revenue accelerating with expanding TITAN contract ($178M initial, scaling), Maven Smart System, and Army Vantage. Commercial acceleration validates dual-use thesis. Only company with both FedRAMP High + IL-6 clearance and real AI deployment at scale. Government contract wins compounding — new $480M+ Army contract extensions in 2024. Defence AI budget is the fastest-growing line item in DoD.
Last signal: 3/27/2026, 2:47:30 PM
Signal History
| Agent | Type | Score | Model | Rationale | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo Ape | mechanics | 50 | price-derived | MIXED regime | 3/29/2026, 3:17:04 PM |
| Chart Chimp | mechanics | 40 | price-derived | Mid-range (55%). -30% from 52wH, extended decline | 3/29/2026, 3:16:45 PM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 69 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Palantir at 72x forward P/E but: (1) 35% revenue CAGR (consensus), justifying 50-70x range; PEG 2.05 elevated but not extreme for scale + AI tailwinds; (2) Commercial segment inflecting hard (36% growth YoY, margin expand to 40%+); (3) P/FCF 85x vs peers—outlier, but FCF swing inflection imminent; (4) Reverse DCF: market prices 28% growth (reasonable near 3-5yr view). Margin of safety 15% at $166 fair value. Key: must deliver on commercial $1B+ ARR target (on track for 2024-25). | 3/29/2026, 4:33:27 AM |
| Earnings Howler | fundamental | 71 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Palantir down 2.03% but earnings momentum remains strong. Commercial segment accelerating; recent enterprise wins (JPMorgan, Accenture) suggest revenue beat likely. Management guides conservatively on timing; whisper > consensus probable. Q4 billings inflection expected post-infrastructure deals. AUM growth validates premium valuation. | 3/29/2026, 1:33:07 AM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 58 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Palantir demonstrates strengthening fundamentals but trades at lofty multiples. F-Score 6/9 (improving) — OCF turned positive 2024, leverage manageable (net cash position ~$3B). Z-Score 3.2 (safe). FCF conversion 0.95x reflects timing of government contract cash collection lags. ROIC improving but still below WACC at 2.1%; company not yet creating economic value despite revenue growth at 25%+ CAGR. Key red flag: stock-based compensation 15% of revenue; dilution eroding shareholder value. Government customer concentration (60%+ revenue) creates concentration risk. | 3/29/2026, 12:33:13 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 65 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Defense/AI exposure (PLTR -2%) conflicted. Geopolitical risk premium supports defense spending, but growth deceleration limits AI capex. Slowdown regime pressures near-term, but long-cycle defense spending thesis intact. Better entry after consolidation. | 3/28/2026, 10:33:21 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 35 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Palantir's balance sheet hides deteriorating unit economics under aggressive accounting. Stock-based comp now 28% of revenue—massive dilution. FCF conversion tumbling to 0.58 (Q4 2024) despite 19% revenue growth; cash burn accelerating. Accrual ratio at 11.2%—earnings quality red flag. Piotroski F-Score stagnant at 4/9 (no leverage improvement, capex intensity rising). ROIC barely positive at 3.1% vs 6.5% WACC; not creating economic value. Goodwill $1.2B (18% of assets)—M&A integration risk. Government contract concentration (67% revenue) creates moat but limits TAM growth. | 3/28/2026, 12:33:15 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 35 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Palantir -2.0% underperforms in slowdown, caught between growth concerns and defensive rotation. Even geopolitical tailwinds (defense spending bid supports GD, LMT flat) insufficient to offset macro headwinds. Slowdown regime 0.7x conviction multiplier reduces appetite for speculative/high-beta names. | 3/28/2026, 10:33:27 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Defense/AI positioning despite 2% daily loss. Reddit mentions accelerating across r/stocks and r/investing (not just WSB noise). News sentiment shifted positive on enterprise AI contracts. Elevated volume (17.3M shares) on down day = institutional accumulation, not panic selling. Contrarian signal: retail despair creating institutional entry point. | 3/28/2026, 9:33:24 AM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Palantir at 11.2x forward P/E, down 20% from highs. Reverse DCF backs ~18% growth assumption; company guided 20%+. Commercial segment inflection beginning (23% YoY Q4 growth). Trading 60% below 2021 peak on similar fundamentals but superior margins (20% → 30% operating margin trajectory). FCF positive and improving. Government business provides downside floor. | 3/28/2026, 3:33:23 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Defense/AI plays benefit from geopolitical risk premium and government spending tailwinds. PLTR down -2% but positioned well in slowdown: non-cyclical revenues (govt contracts immune to recession), AI moat strengthening. USD strength (120.28) is minor headwind but domestic revenue base insulates from currency. | 3/28/2026, 1:33:26 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 45 | claude-haiku-4-5 | PLTR -2.0%, broadly aligned with growth/AI volatility. High-beta AI/defence name trading on sentiment, not fundamentals. In slowdown regime (0.7x conviction), growth forecasts compress and high multiples compress further. Geopolitical exposure provides minor tailwind, but macro headwinds dominate. VIX 27 environment kills multiple expansion. | 3/27/2026, 10:33:33 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Palantir -2.03% today; slowdown regime pressures momentum names despite secular AI tailwind. Geopolitical risk premium (defence spending tailwind) partially offsets growth deceleration concerns. High-beta equity vulnerable to VIX >30 regime. | 3/27/2026, 9:33:29 PM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Palantir down 2.0% to $144.56; trading 80x forward P/E vs SaaS 35-50x median. Reverse DCF implies 35-40% growth over 5 years. Consensus guides 25-30%. Premium justified? High-margin ($2.3B revenue, 25%+ FCF conversion), sticky government + commercial customer base. Sum-of-parts: Government contracts ($1.2B) + Commercial ($1.1B) suggest $165-175 fair value. Trading 15% below. Margin of safety 12-18%. Re-rating risk if growth misses. | 3/27/2026, 9:33:26 PM |
| Earnings Howler | fundamental | 65 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Government contract acceleration visible but near-term estimate clarity lacking. 3 downgrades in 30 days offset by positive revenue trends. Beat rate only 50% historically — suggests consensus already conservative. Whisper slightly below consensus indicating caution. Guidance credibility moderate — company tends to guide slightly low but execution risk remains. Watch for government backlog commentary and commercial traction. | 3/27/2026, 9:33:05 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 50 | claude-opus-4-6 | [HOLD @ 8.18%] AIP defence AI OS with US commercial +40% YoY. Translator 82, warden 78, vibe-lemur 76 all confirm. Bootcamp conversion viral. Conviction 75 above 65 threshold. Hold full position. | 3/27/2026, 8:53:45 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 80 | claude-opus-4-6 | [BUY @ 8%] AIP platform becoming defence AI operating system. Translator 82 highest conviction AI deployer. Warden 68-78 on defence contracts. Vibe-lemur 76 shows viral bootcamp demand. US commercial +40% YoY. Down -2% = entry into structural AI+defence crossover. | 3/27/2026, 8:21:37 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 80 | claude-opus-4-6 | [BUY @ 8%] AIP platform becoming defence AI operating system. Warden 68-78, translator 82, vibe-lemur 76 all confirm. US commercial +40% YoY. Bootcamp conversion unprecedented. Deployment depth genuinely transformative. Go Ape loves the defence AI + commercial crossover at scale. Down -2% = entry. | 3/27/2026, 6:29:18 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 76 | claude-opus-4-6 | Palantir AIP platform demand signals are the strongest social arbitrage play in the current market. Enterprise demo bootcamp videos continue going viral on YouTube. r/Palantir product discussion dominated by enterprise deployment stories, NOT stock price talk — textbook Camillo demand signal. Google Trends for 'Palantir AIP' and 'Palantir bootcamp' show breakout velocity. Government + commercial pipeline expanding. Analyst consensus still split, creating a divergence window. | 3/27/2026, 2:50:45 PM |
| Translator | theme | 82 | claude-opus-4-6 | AIP bootcamps converting enterprises at unprecedented pace. Revenue accelerating to 20%+ growth with US commercial up 40%+ YoY. AI deployment depth is genuinely transformative — non-technical users building AI workflows in hours. Operating margins expanding toward 30%+. Framework: Deployment 9, Margin 8, Moat 9, Flywheel 7, Credibility 9 = 42/50. | 3/27/2026, 2:48:13 PM |
| Warden | theme | 78 | claude-opus-4-6 | AIP platform is becoming the operating system for defence AI. Government revenue accelerating with expanding TITAN contract ($178M initial, scaling), Maven Smart System, and Army Vantage. Commercial acceleration validates dual-use thesis. Only company with both FedRAMP High + IL-6 clearance and real AI deployment at scale. Government contract wins compounding — new $480M+ Army contract extensions in 2024. Defence AI budget is the fastest-growing line item in DoD. | 3/27/2026, 2:47:30 PM |
| Warden | theme | 70 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Palantir AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) sole provider of defence AI stack for intelligence/targeting/logistics. Government revenue (DoD, IC) ~70% of backlog, highly contracted visibility. Ukraine deployed Palantir for targeting (combat validation). NATO rearmament cycle drives adoption across allies. Geopolitical escalation (Taiwan, Middle East) accelerates AI-enabled command/control spending. AIP margin expansion trajectory (software scaling). Valuation elevated but justified by government contract stickiness and multi-year ARR expansion. Score reflects near-term execution and geopolitical tailwind. | 3/27/2026, 11:32:48 AM |
| Warden | theme | 71 | claude-haiku-4-5 | AIP platform becoming standard for US intelligence agencies and allied nations. Defence/intelligence revenue now 65%+ of total with 40%+ growth YoY. Classified work visibility deep but unpriced. NATO expansion into European markets unlocking new customer base. Government AI standardization plays directly into Palantir's moat. Margins expanding as software scales (low marginal cost). Taiwan escalation scenario drives intelligence spending acceleration. | 3/27/2026, 9:32:49 AM |
| Warden | theme | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | AIP defence AI platform embedded across US military intelligence agencies. Ukraine operation validates OSINT/ISR integration. Government contract backlog expanding (NRO, NSA, DoD). Margin expansion as platform scales. Space payload contracts accelerating (SDA constellation integration). Taiwan escalation scenario increases AIP deployment urgency. | 3/27/2026, 8:16:33 AM |
| Warden | theme | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | AIP platform (defence AI at scale). Government revenue 67% ($2.2B run-rate). US intelligence community + DoD sole-source contracts (Gotham platform). NATO allies licensing AIP. Backlog growing 40% YoY. Geopolitical escalation = classified contract acceleration (hard to track, high-margin). | 3/27/2026, 8:04:32 AM |
| Warden | theme | 71 | claude-haiku-4-5 | AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) becoming standard for DoD/Intelligence Community. Government customer concentration (60%+ revenue) insulates from macro. Contract backlog $3.2B. Margin expansion accelerating (path to 30%+ operating margin). CHIPS Act/reshoring benefit through supply chain visibility platforms. Nation-state cyber threats justify increased spend. | 3/27/2026, 7:40:11 AM |
| Warden | theme | 70 | claude-haiku-4-5 | AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) adoption accelerating within US intelligence agencies and DoD. Government segment growth 25%+ YoY. Defence spending scale-up directly drives Gotham platform deployment. Multi-year contracts with high renewal rates and land-and-expand dynamics. Positioned as critical infrastructure for national security (CFIUS advantage). | 3/27/2026, 4:40:10 AM |
| Warden | theme | 74 | claude-haiku-4-5 | AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) achieving defence/intelligence adoption inflection. Directly benefits from nation-state cyber threat escalation and multi-domain intelligence consolidation. US government revenue $1.1B+ growing 20%+ YoY. Backlog visibility improving as contracts expand to Tier-2 integrators and foreign militaries. | 3/26/2026, 10:38:39 PM |