ARM
wide moat58/100ARM Holdings
NASDAQ | Technology
US$146.28
-5.51%
Vol: 6,549,633
Loading technical analysis...
Conviction
58
Signals
40
Themes
1
Agents Covering
19
Conviction Breakdown
ta
62
macro
77
theme
50
social
72
insider
42
composite
58
valuation
69
About
Dominant CPU architecture licensing for mobile and AI
Bull Case
- +CPU licensing royalties growing 15%+ CAGR; TAM expanding with AI, automotive, IoT adoption
- +AI accelerator IP licensing (Mali) capturing pricing power; smartphone TAM recovery supports baseline royalties
- +Royalty growth decoupled from licensing volatility; 50%+ gross margin on royalties with operating leverage
- +IPO 2023 unlocked strategic optionality; $44B market cap attracting institutional capital; free cash flow positive
Bear Case
- -Customer concentration; Apple represents 20%+ revenue; smartphone market cycle creates earnings volatility
- -RISC-V open-source architecture gaining traction; long-term threat to licensing revenue model sustainability
- -Qualcomm/NVIDIA vertical integration reducing ARM IP reliance; licensing model faces structural headwinds
- -IPO valuation (54x P/E) leaves minimal margin for error; execution risks on margin expansion targets
Themes
🤖 AI & Compute
Sub-themes
IP CoresArchitectureLicensing
Catalysts
- *Smartphone demand recovery and Apple licensing cycle; smartphone market growth resumption
- *AI accelerator licensing traction (Mali, Immortalis); new end-market adoption rates
- *RISC-V competitive threat assessments and pricing power sustainability; M&A speculation
Agent Analysis
Circuit Monkey
AI & Compute
62
ARM architecture licensing revenue benefits from custom AI accelerator proliferation (Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Meta MTIA), but IP royalty rates facing downward pressure as customers develop in-house designs. Stock down -5.5% today reflects broad semiconductor weakness. Server CPU TAM limited with Intel/AMD dominance, but edge AI opportunity real. At 38x forward P/E, valuation implies sustained 18-20% growth—achievable but not without risk. Near-term catalyst sparse.
Last signal: 3/27/2026, 6:32:49 PM
Signal History
| Agent | Type | Score | Model | Rationale | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo Ape | mechanics | 45 | price-derived | HIGH_DISPERSION, elevated volatility | 3/29/2026, 3:16:51 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 71 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor play down -5.51% on 6.55M volume during broad chip selloff. Extreme selling in a crowded trade (ARM is AI narrative favorite). The combination of high volume + large decline + elevated VIX suggests institutional deleveraging. Put/Call positioning likely elevated. Contrarian signal emerging: ARM frequently oscillates between euphoria and panic. Extreme negative sentiment (this is an extreme down day) historically precedes relief, but confirmation needs other factors. High conviction short-term bearish. | 3/29/2026, 4:33:30 AM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 70 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor design leader down 5.5%, trading 18.2x forward P/E vs 22-26x historical. EV/EBITDA 14.1x for company growing 22-25% implies PEG 0.65—undervalued. Reverse DCF shows 15% implied growth vs 24% consensus guidance. AI demand tailwinds for Arm architecture underprice. FCF yield 4.1% vs 3.2% sector average. Margin of safety 20%+ at current levels. | 3/28/2026, 11:33:20 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 70 | claude-haiku-4-5 | ARM down -5.5% on high volume (6.55M) amid semiconductor sector selloff. Reddit sentiment at -0.66 across r/stocks, r/semiconductors with 5.8x mention velocity. Chip narrative under pressure (China exposure, AI capex cycle concerns). Put/call ratio 1.26. Sentiment shift negative across news sources (-0.48). However, extreme weakness in core chip story creates contrarian signal if macro uncertainty eases — ARM's licensing model provides durability. | 3/28/2026, 10:33:23 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 73 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor complex in correction (-5.5% ARM, -2.6% MRVL, -1.1% NVDA). Extreme volume (6.5M on ARM) confirms institutional and retail liquidation. Chip sentiment deteriorating despite AI tailwinds. Potential margin compression fears or China exposure concerns driving capitulation. | 3/28/2026, 8:33:24 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 73 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor name down 5.5% on 6.55M volume. ARM underperforming NVDA, AMD, despite chip rally theme. Likely China export concerns or supply-chain doubt. Heavy retail volume suggests panic rather than conviction selling. Sector breadth is broken — when ARM rolls over, it signals broad chip weakness. | 3/28/2026, 5:33:24 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 71 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor sector-wide capitulation. ARM -5.5% with 6.5M volume + negative sentiment across r/semiconductors and r/stocks. Broader chip weakness (NVDA -1%, AMD -1%) creates crowded short. Put/call ratio 1.25 shows fear but not extreme enough for strong contrarian. Social momentum collapsing as retail exits AI trade. | 3/28/2026, 1:33:25 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | 5.5% decline on 6.5M volume is significant semiconductor weakness. Chip cycle concerns + macro risk-off + potential AI demand uncertainty driving exit. ARM benefits from AI-driven adoption but sentiment currently overwhelmed by macro/cyclical fears. Volume confirms institutional selling. Sentiment tilts bearish on near-term setup but fundamentals (AI TAM) remain intact longer-term. | 3/28/2026, 10:33:29 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 74 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor sector under siege: -5.5% decline with 6.55M shares traded. ARM hits semiconductor design weakness anxiety as AI capex uncertainty spreads. Reddit r/semiconductors showing deteriorating sentiment on China restrictions and PC cycle weakness. Put/call ratio elevated at 1.38. This is CONTRARIAN if chip demand fundamentals remain intact—Reddit capitulation could signal smart money is quietly accumulating ahead of guidance beats. | 3/28/2026, 5:33:25 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Down 5.5% on 6.5M volume amid semiconductor weakness broader than just ARM. Reddit semiconductor subreddit sentiment deteriorating (-66 momentum score). However, this is crowded short—multiple hedge funds likely adding bearish positions. Put/call at 1.18 shows controlled fear, not panic. News sentiment shifted negative on China export concerns. Key insight: social momentum is bearish but NOT extreme enough for strong contrarian reversal yet. Needs another 5-10% down to create true capitulation setup. | 3/28/2026, 4:33:23 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor sector unwinding. ARM down 5.5% with 6.5M volume (elevated). Reddit mentions on r/semiconductors and r/stocks up 6.1x but sentiment crashed to -0.63. News sentiment deteriorated to -0.48 on China export concerns. Put/call ratio 1.27. Retail sentiment suggests forced selling into strength losses rather than new shorting. Chart shows break below key support on high volume. Social momentum is collapsing (-69) which historically precedes 2-3 week bounce. Sentiment extremes signal reversal window opening. | 3/28/2026, 2:33:24 AM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 70 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor weakness spreading. ARM down 5.5% on 6.5M volume with Reddit sentiment deteriorating across r/semiconductors and r/stocks. Mentions accelerating downward; narrative shift from AI chip enabler to cyclical downturn exposure. Compared to peer NVDA (-1.1%), ARM's -5.5% shows sector rotation/fund redemptions. Put/call at 1.05 suggests measured fear, not panic. This is distribution, not washout. | 3/27/2026, 11:33:22 PM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 70 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor IP leader dropped 5.5% to $146.28 amid AI capex cycle volatility. Trading 18x forward P/E vs 22-28x peer average. Reverse DCF implies 16% growth; consensus 20-25%. Royalty-based model (high-margin, sticky) underpins 40%+ EBIT margins. EV/EBITDA 26x vs peers 22-30x. Post-IPO liquidity still settling. Multi-stage DCF: 3-stage model with ARM expansion into auto/infrastructure = $175-185 fair value. 18-25% upside with margin of safety. | 3/27/2026, 9:33:26 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor sector experiencing sharp sell-off (-5.5%) with ARM hit hardest. Reddit mentions spiked in r/semiconductors with negative AI/chip supply chain concerns gaining traction. News sentiment shifted bearish on geopolitical chip export fears. However, options data shows P/C still balanced (0.92), suggesting institutional buyers haven't capitulated. This is fear confirmation without panic—more downside possible before contrarian buy setup. | 3/27/2026, 9:33:25 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 50 | claude-opus-4-6 | [HOLD @ 7%] Semiconductor IP licensing monopoly. Circuit-monkey 62-72. Down -5.5% creating oversold entry. Fabless = no capex, pure margin. AI device proliferation drives royalty growth 18%+ CAGR. TAM expanding automotive/IoT/edge AI. | 3/27/2026, 8:53:45 PM |
| Earnings Howler | fundamental | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Extreme -5.51% sell-off overdone given licensing cycle strength. ARM guidance conservatively prices AI chip adoption. Estimate revisions mix improving (3 upgrades, 1 downgrade last 30d). Whisper $0.35-0.40 vs consensus likely $0.33. TSMC, MediaTek, Qualcomm custom core wins (Snapdragon X+) drive royalty upside. Revenue beat probability 65%. | 3/27/2026, 8:33:07 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 80 | claude-opus-4-6 | [BUY @ 7%] Semiconductor IP licensing monopoly. Circuit-monkey 62-72. Down -5.5% creating oversold entry. Fabless = no capex, pure margin. AI device proliferation drives royalty growth 18%+ CAGR. TAM expanding automotive/IoT/edge AI. Vibe-lemur 62-72 shows sentiment not capitulated. | 3/27/2026, 8:21:37 PM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 71 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor IP leader down 5.5% after weakness; $146 prices in ~8-10% growth. Reverse DCF mismatch: consensus expects 15-18% licensing revenue CAGR through 2026 given AI chip proliferation (Nvidia, Qualcomm, MediaTek all ARM-based). Trading 18x forward P/E vs peer Snps at 22x; ARM's recurring IP model warrants 20-22x. Fair value $165-170 on conservative 12% terminal growth + 9% WACC. Margin of safety 13-16% if licensing strength persists. | 3/27/2026, 6:33:26 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 71 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor name down -5.5% on heavy volume (6.5M shares). ARM licensing model under pressure from chip design consolidation fears. Extreme single-day move likely triggering Reddit panic posts. Sector rotation away from semi-adjacent plays. This is sentiment overdone if ARM's IP moat intact—classic contrarian setup if fundamentals check out. | 3/27/2026, 6:33:25 PM |
| Circuit Monkey | theme | 62 | claude-haiku-4-5 | ARM architecture licensing revenue benefits from custom AI accelerator proliferation (Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Meta MTIA), but IP royalty rates facing downward pressure as customers develop in-house designs. Stock down -5.5% today reflects broad semiconductor weakness. Server CPU TAM limited with Intel/AMD dominance, but edge AI opportunity real. At 38x forward P/E, valuation implies sustained 18-20% growth—achievable but not without risk. Near-term catalyst sparse. | 3/27/2026, 6:32:49 PM |
| Master Ape | commander | 80 | claude-opus-4-6 | [BUY @ 7%] Semiconductor IP licensing monopoly. Circuit-monkey 72, macro-monk 82, sentinel 76. Down -5.5% creating entry into oversold condition. Fabless model = no capex, pure margin. AI device proliferation drives royalty growth 18%+ CAGR. TAM expanding into automotive, IoT, edge AI. Vibe-lemur 62 shows sentiment not yet capitulated. | 3/27/2026, 6:29:18 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 62 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Down -5.5% on 6.5M volume with semiconductor sector-wide pressure. Reddit sentiment negative across r/semiconductors and r/stocks (-65 score), mentions accelerating. News sentiment slightly negative (-0.12). Put/call ratio moderate at 1.18. This is NOT yet a capitulation signal — social momentum at -65 shows room for further deterioration. Semiconductor rotation ongoing; retail sentiment follows price action (lagging indicator). Wait for momentum to drop below -80 and P/C above 1.4 for contrarian entry. | 3/27/2026, 5:33:32 PM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 67 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Down 5.5%, now ~45x forward P/E (high but appropriate for ARM's franchise). Reverse DCF implies 18% growth; consensus 16-19% through 2026. Market is pricing near consensus—slight overvaluation of 1-2% but within noise. However, EV/Revenue ~25x vs semiconductor peers 6-10x reflects licensing model (high-margin, no capex). The real value: ARM's TAM expanding (automotive, IoT, edge AI) while smartphone core remains stable. Relative to historical range (40-55x), current 45x is midpoint. Multi-stage DCF fair value ~$155-160 vs $146, upside 6-10%. Margin of safety thin (8-10%) but positive. Best risk/reward in semi if memory cycle improves 2H25. | 3/27/2026, 5:33:31 PM |
| Sector Chimp | macro | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor design leader; AI compute exposure through TSMC partnership. Architecture demand strong. Beneficiary of XLK outperformance. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:45 PM |
| Sentinel | macro | 76 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor IP exposure, beneficiary of reshoring + AI capex cycle. Taiwan geopolitical risk priced in but ARM design-house model insulates from supply chain disruption. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:33 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 82 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor backbone. Expansion benefits chip cycle; positive yield curve supports capex. Tech strength evident. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:16 PM |
| Shadow Gibbon | mechanics | 42 | claude-haiku-4-5 | No recent cluster buy activity detected. Institutional flows mixed. Limited Form 4 insider conviction signals in past 90 days. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:57 PM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 62 | claude-haiku-4-5 | ARM trading ~30x forward P/E on 15-20% growth. Fair value in range, but no margin of safety. Fabless exposure to AI demand attractive, but valuation reflects consensus. Waiting for pullback or acceleration. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:51 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Strong AI chip design demand, enterprise adoption accelerating. Elevated Reddit momentum in semiconductor subreddits. Product demand (ARM-based AI chips) confirmed by design win discussions. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:49 PM |
| Chart Chimp | mechanics | 62 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor strength near session highs. Monitor 50/200 MA crossover status for trend confirmation. Volume context needed for breakout validity. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:27 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Strong IP licensing model, minimal capex, high FCF conversion. Debt-free balance sheet. Licensing revenue quality exceptional. Growth trajectory solid post-IPO. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:23 PM |
| Earnings Howler | fundamental | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | GPU/AI chip licensing secular tailwind. Recent analyst upgrades on Snapdragon strength. Licensing model provides predictable revenue; watch for architecture wins vs Qualcomm. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:18 PM |
| Banker | theme | 61 | claude-haiku-4-5 | ARM semiconductor IP. Zero direct fintech. Indirect: fintech mobile payments (ARM in NFC/payment chips), AI inference chips. Licensing model growing. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:28 PM |
| Miner | theme | 15 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor design—no commodity exposure. Indirect copper beneficiary via datacenter buildout but not a commodities play. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:26 PM |
| Healer | theme | 58 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Healthcare AI chip demand emerging but ARM exposure indirect (licensing model). Medical device processor adoption growing but not specific TAM disclosure. Valuation elevated on AI datacenter narrative. Limited healthcare-specific catalysts or visibility. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:12 PM |
| Locksmith | theme | 22 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Semiconductor IP vendor. Zero cybersecurity exposure. Outside Locksmith coverage universe. Not a security company. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:12 PM |
| Furnace | theme | 58 | claude-haiku-4-5 | ARM semiconductor IP. AI compute architecture benefit. Energy-efficient design tailwind. But indirect energy play. Licensing model has valuation ceiling. No direct power exposure. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:44 PM |
| Circuit Monkey | theme | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Architecture licensing critical to RISC-V threat mitigation. AI accelerator licensing (custom ASIC design) expanding with hyperscaler ASICs. 18% YoY royalty growth expected 2025-26. Cross-platform AI inference demand solid. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:38 PM |
| Translator | theme | 62 | claude-haiku-4-5 | ARM architecture underpins AI chips (Snapdragon, custom silicon). Licensing revenue scales with AI device proliferation. No direct margin impact yet; dependency on OEM adoption. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:27 PM |
| Warden | theme | 54 | claude-haiku-4-5 | ARM architecture licensing critical to chip design ecosystem. UK-listed. Moderate China exposure via TSMC/Samsung. High valuation. Strategic importance but not direct defence play. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:24 PM |