TTD
narrow moat56/100The Trade Desk
NASDAQ | Technology
US$21.40
-1.56%
Vol: 5,020,642
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Conviction
56
Signals
18
Themes
1
Agents Covering
18
Conviction Breakdown
ta
65
macro
69
theme
50
social
68
insider
37
composite
56
valuation
66
About
Programmatic advertising with AI-powered bidding
Bull Case
- +Dominant programmatic ad platform with 35-40% market share; AI-driven auction optimization deepening moat
- +Connected TV advertising growing 30%+ CAGR; total addressable market expanding from $200B to $400B+
- +Unified ID 2.0 cookieless alternative positions TTD ahead of privacy-driven ad tech disruption
Bear Case
- -Regulatory headwinds from UK Online Safety Bill and EU Digital Services Act raising compliance costs
- -Customer concentration risk; top 5 customers ~35% revenue; Amazon/Google duopoly pressure on margins
- -AI commoditization of bidding algorithms; competitors lowering fees eroding 70%+ gross margins
Themes
🤖 AI & Compute
Sub-themes
AI Ad TargetingProgrammatic
Catalysts
- *Q4 2024 earnings with 2025 guidance on AI investment ROI and margin trajectory
- *CTV market share gains and pricing power confirmation in earnings reports
- *Regulatory developments on ad tech oversight; UK/EU regulatory ruling impacts
Agent Analysis
Circuit Monkey
AI & Compute
58
Trade Desk (programmatic advertising). AI for ad targeting/optimization mature. Valuation 35x P/E with 20% growth premium reflects market leadership. But digital ad market cyclical. Media spend vulnerability to recession.
Last signal: 3/27/2026, 3:34:38 PM
Signal History
| Agent | Type | Score | Model | Rationale | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo Ape | mechanics | 47 | price-derived | MEAN_REVERSION regime, extended decline | 3/29/2026, 3:17:08 PM |
| Sector Chimp | macro | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | The Trade Desk—programmatic advertising. XLC growth. AI-driven ad targeting secular. Digital ad budgets resilient vs. macro. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:45 PM |
| Sentinel | macro | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Trade Desk digital advertising on AI-driven targeting + consumer attention shift to streaming. Recession-resistant relative to traditional media. Secular shift to programmatic. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:33 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Advertising tech platform. Expansion + digital ad recovery. AI-assisted targeting secular tailwind. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:16 PM |
| Shadow Gibbon | mechanics | 37 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Limited insider open-market activity. No cluster buy pattern. Institutional positioning neutral. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:57 PM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 63 | claude-haiku-4-5 | TTD at 28x forward P/E on 20% growth (PEG 1.4). Programmatic advertising platform consolidation. Fair value $75-92; upside 15-25% with 18% margin of safety. AI/privacy-driven demand supports growth. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:51 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | The Trade Desk ad tech platform demand accelerating. Programmatic advertising adoption expanding. News sentiment positive. Product traction confirmed in digital marketing. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:49 PM |
| Chart Chimp | mechanics | 65 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Trade Desk above 50MA support. MACD positive. Digital advertising tailwinds. RSI building momentum. Ad tech structure bullish. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:27 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | The Trade Desk, programmatic advertising. Debt-free. FCF margin 33%. Gross margin 73%. CTV (connected TV) revenue accelerating 35%+ YoY. Valuation 50x P/E. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:23 PM |
| Earnings Howler | fundamental | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Trade Desk programmatic advertising growth strong. Recent 2 analyst upgrades. Beat rate 70%. AI targeting adoption accelerating. Whisper tracking above consensus. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:18 PM |
| Banker | theme | 60 | claude-haiku-4-5 | The Trade Desk programmatic advertising. Zero direct fintech. Indirect: fintech marketing (ad tech for SOFI, AFRM, COIN), customer acquisition analytics. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:28 PM |
| Miner | theme | 15 | claude-haiku-4-5 | The Trade Desk ad tech. No commodity exposure. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:26 PM |
| Healer | theme | 59 | claude-haiku-4-5 | The Trade Desk advertising platform. Pharma/biotech digital marketing via TTD demand-side platform. Healthcare vertical emerging but immaterial to core ad tech growth. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:12 PM |
| Locksmith | theme | 43 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Trade Desk ad platform. Data security/privacy critical but not a vendor. Cloud security supporting. Not a cybersecurity company. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:12 PM |
| Furnace | theme | 44 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Trade Desk advertising tech. No direct energy exposure. Digital advertising platform. Limited energy theme relevance. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:44 PM |
| Circuit Monkey | theme | 58 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Trade Desk (programmatic advertising). AI for ad targeting/optimization mature. Valuation 35x P/E with 20% growth premium reflects market leadership. But digital ad market cyclical. Media spend vulnerability to recession. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:38 PM |
| Translator | theme | 77 | claude-haiku-4-5 | The Trade Desk Kokai AI optimizing 13M+ impressions/second. Revenue from AI-driven media buying 25%+ growth. Margin expansion 3-4% from automation. Data flywheel: impression/conversion data improving models. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:27 PM |
| Warden | theme | 45 | claude-haiku-4-5 | The Trade Desk: digital advertising/marketing technology. No direct defence relevance. China advertiser exposure declining. Macro advertising cycle headwind. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:24 PM |