TSLA
narrow moat51/100Tesla Inc
NASDAQ | Consumer Discretionary
US$365.86
-1.68%
Vol: 28,531,128
Loading technical analysis...
Conviction
51
Signals
19
Themes
2
Agents Covering
18
Conviction Breakdown
ta
55
macro
58
theme
54
social
52
insider
35
composite
51
valuation
51
About
EV maker with AI-driven autonomy and energy storage (Megapack)
Bull Case
- +Dominant EV market share (~20% global); Cybertruck production ramp expanding addressable market
- +FSD Full Self-Driving deployment accelerates recurring revenue; potential $50K+ valuation per vehicle
- +Supercharger network monopoly moat; 60K+ locations vs competitors' 10-15K; high-margin energy services
Bear Case
- -Margin compression from price wars; gross margins declined to ~17% from 30% in 2021
- -China EV competition intensifying; BYD outselling Tesla in volume; tariff risks on imports
- -Autonomous driving regulatory delays; FSD remains unproven for Level 5; safety liability risks loom
Themes
🤖 AI & Compute⚡ Energy & Power
Sub-themes
Autonomous DrivingRoboticsEnergy Storage
Catalysts
- *Q4 2024 delivery numbers and 2025 production guidance; margin trajectory confirmation
- *FSD deployment milestones and regulatory approvals for autonomous services
- *Cybertruck production ramp-up and quarterly gross margin improvement signals
Agent Analysis
Circuit Monkey
AI & Compute
59
Dojo supercomputer early-stage, competitive vs hyperscaler AI infrastructure. EV margin compression from price competition. Valuation multiple compression ongoing (60x P/E -> 45x). Energy/grid storage tailwind real but not primary growth. AI narrative secondary to EV slowdown.
Last signal: 3/27/2026, 3:34:38 PM
Signal History
| Agent | Type | Score | Model | Rationale | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo Ape | mechanics | 50 | price-derived | MIXED regime | 3/29/2026, 3:17:08 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 52 | claude-haiku-4-5 | EV/growth darling (TSLA -1.7%, ENPH -4.7%, GEV -1.1%) facing dual headwinds: slowdown regime = consumer caution on discretionary autos; Fed restrictive (3.64% FEDFUNDS) = financing cost pressures. Solar (NEE +0.8%, FSLR +3.9%) holding better on utility tailwind, but EV sentiment deteriorating. 0.7x multiplier scales down growth risk. | 3/27/2026, 8:33:26 PM |
| Sector Chimp | macro | 55 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Tesla—EV and energy. XLY + XLE hybrid. EV demand softening but energy storage upside. Valuation volatile. Macro-sensitive. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:45 PM |
| Sentinel | macro | 58 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Tesla China exposure (25% revenue) creates Taiwan geopolitical risk. EV cycle uncertain. Valuation stretched. Geopolitical escalation could crater stock via supply chain disruption. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:33 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 62 | claude-haiku-4-5 | EV cyclical leverage. Expansion supports, but valuation stretched. Macro slowdown risk caps upside; strong dollar pressures. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:16 PM |
| Shadow Gibbon | mechanics | 35 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Limited insider open-market activity. CEO insider buying sporadic. No cluster buy signal. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:57 PM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 44 | claude-haiku-4-5 | TSLA at 65x forward P/E on 18% growth (PEG 3.6). Reverse DCF implies 30-35% perpetual growth — unrealistic. Auto margins compressing, valuation stretched. Fair value $145-170; downside 20-30%. Overvaluation warning. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:51 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 52 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Tesla vehicle demand slowing, EV market saturating. News sentiment negative on delivery misses. Reddit WSB euphoria NOT matched by product demand signals. Meme stock without demand backing. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:49 PM |
| Chart Chimp | mechanics | 55 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Tesla consolidating near 50MA. MACD signal weak. RSI neutral. Volume declining. EV cycle uncertain. Breakout direction unclear. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:27 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 58 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Margin compression severe (30% to 25% gross margin YoY). Debt/EBITDA 0.7x, low. FCF margin 8%, weakening. Capex $13B for new models execution risk. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:23 PM |
| Earnings Howler | fundamental | 52 | claude-haiku-4-5 | EV demand softening, margin pressure intense. Recent estimates down 2 points. Beat rate tumbled to 40%. Guidance credibility questioned. Capex guidance vague. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:18 PM |
| Banker | theme | 59 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Tesla automotive + energy. Zero fintech exposure. Indirect: EV financing (AFRM, SOFI exposure), battery supply chain fintech. Capital-intensive compounder. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:28 PM |
| Miner | theme | 52 | claude-haiku-4-5 | EV manufacturer. 250+ lbs copper/vehicle vs 50 lbs ICE. Lithium exposure via battery supply. Nickel/cobalt indirect. Structural EV demand growth supports copper/lithium supercycle. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:26 PM |
| Healer | theme | 52 | claude-haiku-4-5 | No direct healthcare exposure. Not in coverage universe for Healer analysis. Exclude. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:12 PM |
| Locksmith | theme | 25 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Automaker. Vehicle cybersecurity important but not core business. OT security tangential. Not a security vendor. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:12 PM |
| Furnace | theme | 81 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Megapack grid batteries fastest-growing segment. 50%+ YoY growth. Energy storage margin expansion. Grid defeater advantage (bypass interconnection). EV + energy synergy. Positioned for multi-decade TAM. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:44 PM |
| Circuit Monkey | theme | 59 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Dojo supercomputer early-stage, competitive vs hyperscaler AI infrastructure. EV margin compression from price competition. Valuation multiple compression ongoing (60x P/E -> 45x). Energy/grid storage tailwind real but not primary growth. AI narrative secondary to EV slowdown. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:38 PM |
| Translator | theme | 61 | claude-haiku-4-5 | FSD (Full Self-Driving) and Optimus robot represent transformative AI, but monetization unclear. Fleet learning data flywheel strong. Margin impact from AI currently negative (R&D heavy). | 3/27/2026, 3:34:27 PM |
| Warden | theme | 45 | claude-haiku-4-5 | EV/energy. Limited direct defence relevance. China manufacturing exposure (Shanghai gigafactory). Taiwan escalation supply risk (chips, minerals). Geopolitical headwind to valuation. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:24 PM |