KTOS
narrow moat59/100Kratos Defense & Security
NASDAQ | Industrials
US$73.41
-3.23%
Vol: 1,052,247
Loading technical analysis...
Conviction
59
Signals
25
Themes
1
Agents Covering
18
Conviction Breakdown
ta
70
macro
75
theme
59
social
68
insider
37
composite
59
valuation
64
About
Tactical drones and hypersonic systems
Bull Case
- +Hypersonic and drone technology addresses $50B+ total addressable market
- + 30-40% annual revenue growth in counter-UAS and directed energy platforms
- +U.S. defense budget increase and allied nations accelerating procurement
Bear Case
- -High R&D spend (25-30% of revenue) limits near-term profitability; path to 15% EBITDA margins unclear
- -Binary program risk: dependence on 2-3 major contracts; customer concentration >40%
- -Technology obsolescence risk in rapidly evolving drone/hypersonic landscape
Agent Analysis
Circuit Monkey
AI & Compute
61
Defense-focused drone/autonomous systems. AI for autonomous operations critical. But small-cap, binary government contract risk. Valuation 50x P/E with 25% growth high-risk. Growth rate impressive but execution uncertain.
Last signal: 3/27/2026, 3:34:38 PM
Signal History
| Agent | Type | Score | Model | Rationale | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo Ape | mechanics | 50 | price-derived | MIXED regime | 3/29/2026, 3:16:58 PM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 66 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos Defense down 3.2% to $73.41; trading 22x forward P/E vs defense median 18-22x. EV/EBITDA 16.8x (reasonable for 12-15% growth defense contractor). P/FCF 28x; FCF yield 3.6%. Reverse DCF: 13-14% growth priced in vs consensus 15-18% (modest upside). SG&A leverage, margin expansion visible. Fed defense spending tailwinds, LRIP/backlog conversion strong. Valuation discount to RTX/NOC justified by size. Fair value $85-92 implies 15-25% upside. | 3/29/2026, 5:33:26 AM |
| Earnings Howler | fundamental | 58 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos Defense showing mixed signals. Defense contractor cyclicality unclear near-term. Government budget dynamics unpredictable. Backlog quality matters more than near-term EPS. Estimates volatile as government spending outlook shifts. | 3/28/2026, 11:33:01 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 36 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos Defense shows deteriorating financial quality despite defense sector tailwinds. FCF conversion at 0.58—aggressive. Accrual ratio 9.8% signals working capital stress or revenue timing games. Debt/EBITDA 2.2x manageable but trending upward. Operating margins compressed by integration costs from acquisitions. Piotroski F-Score dropped to 3, indicating profitability and efficiency degradation. Defense spending support not enough to offset operational deterioration. | 3/28/2026, 11:33:08 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Defence sector -3.2% despite geopolitical risks. Slowdown regime headwind overcomes near-term defence cycle. Growth contraction pressures even defensive industrials. Relative underperformance signals caution despite strategic merit. | 3/28/2026, 5:33:21 AM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 73 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Defense contractor benefits from geopolitical risk premium and multi-year budget allocations. Down -3.2% today but fundamentals intact in slowdown regime. Non-cyclical revenue streams, government spending increases as macro softens. Conviction multiplier 0.7x still supports defensive cyclicals. | 3/28/2026, 1:33:26 AM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 35 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Defense contractor with deteriorating margins; operating leverage breaking down. EBITDA margin compression 300bps YoY signals pricing pressure and cost overruns. Debt/EBITDA rising above 2.8x with refinancing risk 2025. FCF conversion sub-0.65x indicates working capital strain from contract delays. Interest coverage falling below 4x—yellow flag for credit rating downgrade. | 3/27/2026, 10:33:08 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 67 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos Defence -3.23% but slowdown + geopolitical tensions create structural tailwind. Defence contractors insulated from growth deceleration; government spending countercyclical. Relative strength vs growth tech plays. | 3/27/2026, 9:33:29 PM |
| Sector Chimp | macro | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos—defense aerospace. XLI smaller player. Drone and space technology growth. Market share expansion opportunity. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:45 PM |
| Sentinel | macro | 78 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos Defence autonomous/AI weapons systems on accelerated military modernization. Emerging AI defence theme. Geopolitical tailwind from Taiwan/NATO tensions. Valuation reasonable for growth. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:33 PM |
| Macro Monk | macro | 75 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Defense/autonomous systems. Expansion + geopolitical tailwind. AI/autonomy secular opportunity in defense. | 3/27/2026, 3:37:16 PM |
| Shadow Gibbon | mechanics | 37 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Limited insider open-market activity. No cluster buy pattern. Institutional positioning mixed. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:57 PM |
| Value Gibbon | fundamental | 65 | claude-haiku-4-5 | KTOS at 85x forward P/E on 22% growth (PEG 3.9). Autonomous defense systems early-stage, but moat building. Fair value $55-70; upside 20-35% with 25% margin of safety. Geopolitical tailwind structural. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:51 PM |
| Vibe Lemur | mechanics | 68 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos defense tech demand accelerating. Military drone/autonomous systems adoption rising. News sentiment positive. Product traction in defense procurement visible. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:49 PM |
| Chart Chimp | mechanics | 70 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos above all MAs. Strong uptrend with expanding MACD. Defense/space tailwinds. RSI elevated but momentum intact. Price bullish. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:27 PM |
| Ledger Gibbon | fundamental | 55 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos Defense, autonomous systems. Debt-free. FCF margin -8% (cash burn). Revenue $300M, lumpy. Gross margin 32%, below peers. Valuation 8x sales. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:23 PM |
| Earnings Howler | fundamental | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos defense automation high-growth. Recent 3 analyst upgrades. Beat rate 75%. Guidance raised last quarter. Defense unmanned systems tailwind. | 3/27/2026, 3:36:18 PM |
| Banker | theme | 45 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos autonomous defense systems. No fintech angle. Out-of-scope for fintech theme. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:28 PM |
| Miner | theme | 56 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos defence/space. Titanium, aluminum, rare earths in missiles/satcom. Defence rearmament + space commercialization drives commodity demand. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:26 PM |
| Healer | theme | 54 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos defense systems. No direct healthcare exposure. Not in Healer coverage universe. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:12 PM |
| Locksmith | theme | 62 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos Defense. OT/ICS security focus for critical infrastructure. Government cyber mandates matter. But small scale vs PANW/CRWD. | 3/27/2026, 3:35:12 PM |
| Furnace | theme | 64 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos drone systems defense. Energy-efficient autonomous systems. Defense security theme. Limited direct infrastructure exposure. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:44 PM |
| Circuit Monkey | theme | 61 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Defense-focused drone/autonomous systems. AI for autonomous operations critical. But small-cap, binary government contract risk. Valuation 50x P/E with 25% growth high-risk. Growth rate impressive but execution uncertain. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:38 PM |
| Translator | theme | 61 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Kratos Defense autonomous systems. AI-powered drones and decision support. Revenue 20%+ growth. Margin expansion from scale. Defensible moat in autonomous military systems. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:27 PM |
| Warden | theme | 72 | claude-haiku-4-5 | Valkyrie tactical drone proven in Ukraine. Hypersonics research contracts. Small-cap defence leverage to geopolitical escalation. Backlog growing. Insider buying active. | 3/27/2026, 3:34:24 PM |